SC
SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP (SBAC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Raised FY25 guidance across site leasing revenue, total revenues, Tower Cash Flow, Adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO/share, driven by stronger U.S. leasing activity, services outperformance, early Millicom closings, favorable FX, and lower share count; Canada tower sale expected to be immediately accretive to AFFO/share upon closing .
- Q2 revenue beat and EPS effectively in line: Revenue $698.98M vs $673.32M consensus; Diluted EPS $2.09 vs $2.11 consensus; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $475.5M, with margins down year/year on mix and higher costs .
- Domestic momentum (sixth sequential bookings increase) and services growth underpin 2H acceleration; international churn elevated and bad debt reserve tied to Brazil’s Oi weigh on near-term; Sprint-related churn remains well telegraphed .
- Capital allocation balanced: 618k shares repurchased in Q2 and 182k post quarter, dividend maintained at $1.11/share; leverage ~6.5x (6.3x pro forma Millicom), ample liquidity; S&P upgraded corporate rating to BBB (investment grade) under new criteria .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- U.S. leasing activity exceeded internal expectations with continued high colocations; services outperformed with construction volumes growing sequentially; backlog remains healthy .
- Early closing of ~4,323 Millicom sites accelerated integration and contributed to guidance raise; strong tenant demand expected in Central America .
- Dividend declared ($1.11/share) and buybacks reduced share count, supporting AFFO/share; leverage stable with revolver largely undrawn .
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What Went Wrong
- Adjusted EBITDA margin down to 68.1% (vs 71.3% y/y) and Tower Cash Flow margin slightly lower on mix and cost growth; international segment operating profit down y/y (reported) amid FX and churn .
- Elevated international churn and a bad debt allowance tied to Brazil’s Oi; company increased churn assumptions and booked reserve .
- EPS slightly below consensus and AFFO down y/y given higher net cash interest and FX headwinds; net cash interest expense rose 23% y/y to $111.5M .
Financial Results
Estimate comparison (consensus vs actual)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment breakdown (site leasing)
Key performance indicators (KPIs)
Guidance Changes
Drivers cited: stronger leasing/services, early Millicom closings, favorable FX, AT&T MLA straight-line uplift, reduced share count; Canada sale not reflected in outlook timing .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Domestic activity remained very strong... new U.S. leasing business signed up during the quarter was ahead of our expectations... our company-wide total of new colocations executed during the quarter was the highest in nearly three years.” — Brendan Cavanagh, CEO .
- “We have meaningfully increased our full year outlook across all key financial metrics... entered into an agreement to sell all of our Canadian tower assets. This divestiture will be immediately accretive to AFFO per share upon closing...” — Brendan Cavanagh, CEO .
- “We are increasing our full year outlook for all key metrics... drivers include outperformance of second quarter results, higher straight line revenue, earlier Millicom closings, improved services outlook, favorable FX, and reduced share count.” — Marc Montagner, CFO .
- “Our current leverage of 6.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA as adjusted on a pro forma basis for the Millicom assets remains near historical lows... repurchased 799,000 shares...” — Mark DeRussy, Capital Markets .
Q&A Highlights
- Demand durability: Fixed wireless, densification, rural expansion to support sustained network investment; AI-enabled products expected to drive traffic; no material rent reduction initiatives observed .
- Timing of revenue from new colos: Shift toward new leases lengthens installation timeline; 2H contributions must be higher to meet full-year targets, consistent with backlog .
- International risk/Oi: Increased churn assumptions and bad debt allowance tied to Oi Wireline’s reorganization; monitoring closely .
- Canada sale economics: ~$27M CAD leasing revenue and ~CAD 15M after-tax cash flow; AFFO-type multiple ~30x, mid-to-upper 20s after capital gains tax .
- Exposure to US Cellular and DISH: ~$20M and ~$55M annual revenue, respectively; no planned churn at present; potential overlap over years with US Cellular/T-Mobile .
- Investment grade considerations: S&P corporate upgrade to BBB; unsecured cost could improve; ABS market already provides near-IG economics; flexibility maintained .
- Spectrum timing: 100 MHz auction by mid-2026; higher band spectrum later (potentially next decade) .
- AT&T MLA straight-line uplift: Lease term extensions from upgrades increased straight-line revenue .
Estimates Context
- Q2 revenue beat, EPS in line: Revenue $698.98M vs $673.32M consensus; EPS $2.09 vs $2.107 consensus*. Q1 revenue in line ($664.25M vs $662.32M*) but EPS missed ($1.77 vs $2.163*); Q4 2024 beat on both revenue and EPS*. Drivers for Q2 beat/margin compression include stronger U.S. activity and services offset by higher net cash interest and FX; guidance raised accordingly .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Guidance raises across major metrics and early Millicom closings are catalysts; Canada sale accretive to AFFO/share on close and portfolio focus on scale markets should support multiple expansion .
- Domestic momentum remains robust with six quarters of bookings growth; expect 2H lease-up contribution to step up, benefiting revenue trajectory and services volumes .
- Watch international churn (Brazil/Oi) and FX; management increased churn assumptions and booked reserves, mitigating estimate risk .
- Net cash interest rising remains a headwind to AFFO growth near term; leverage stable and S&P upgrade to BBB improves financing optionality for unsecured debt .
- Exposure to US Cellular/DISH is manageable and spread over years; not a near-term overhang per management commentary .
- Spectrum auctions reinstated and AI-driven traffic growth are structural tailwinds for macro towers and equipment deployments, underpinning medium-term organic growth .
- Buybacks and dividends continue to support per-share metrics; reduced share count contributed to AFFO/share guidance lift .